Unpacking the Court: Understanding the Dynamics of Supreme Court Decision-Making
Lee Epstein, William M. Landes & Richard A. Posner · Washington University in St. Louis, University of Chicago Law School, U.S. Court of Appeals · 2013
Abstract
This empirical study analyzes patterns in Supreme Court decision-making over six decades, using quantitative methods to examine the relationship between the ideological composition of the Court and the direction of its decisions. The authors construct a comprehensive database of Supreme Court votes and apply statistical models to test competing theories of judicial behavior. The analysis finds that the attitudinal model—which posits that justices vote primarily based on their ideological preferences—has significant explanatory power, but that institutional constraints, strategic considerations, and legal factors also play important roles in shaping outcomes.
Key Findings
- Ideology is a strong predictor of Supreme Court voting patterns but not the sole determinant
- Justices exhibit different levels of ideological consistency across different areas of law
- The median justice has outsized influence on the direction of the Court's decisions
- Institutional norms and strategic considerations constrain purely ideological voting
Related Cases
- Various Supreme Court decisions analyzed in aggregate